Eastern Missouri Commission Co.

Funny how such a tough, late, cold spring can give way to such a beautiful summer. Looks like we are going to get some heat just in time for the state fair but this time of year the corn will love it. On those warm summer days after a summer shower if Sierra and I are riding together we roll down the windows so we can smell the corn grow. She says its her favorite summer smell.

Speaking of Sierra and the State Fair, you will find Sierra's article describes her discovery of the state cattleman and National Cattleman's Beef Association. She has found it hard to believe that so few members and staff do so much anonymously for so many. I've been a member forever but realize that most cattle producers are not members and never will be. Regardless of membership status, if you are going to the state fair and you want to pitch in to help out the state cattle men's organization you will have the chance. All you have to do is be sure and eat at the beef house on the fairgrounds. Basically the beef house profit generated during the state fair finances the operations of the Missouri Cattleman’s Association for the whole year. Enjoy the meal!

Let's talk about the cattle market now. We all know that slaughter cows are in short supply. Twice this year the summer slaughter cow market has responded and jumped up over the $60cwt but twice the price surge has been blunted buy the announcement of two different dairy cow buyouts. Ya know, I like milk as much as anybody, but I'll sure be glad when all the dairy buyout cows are dead. The feeder cattle market is still hanging in there. The fed cattle market is also hanging in there... Just at a low prices ($80 to $83cwt?).

I'm really a bit amazed at the reaction that my last month’s article evoked. To be honest, I'm surprised so many people read it. Unofficially, half were near a panic and the other half just wanted to ride me into the dirt for being so pessimistic. For now, my opinion last month is my story and I'm sticking to it. I was asked why I would be so negative publicly? Well, like Shakespeare said, "to be foretold is to be forewarned." I suspect that many will be reading this month to get advice and direction. I'm afraid I have no definitive advice, but I can pass on three items of good news that has rejuvenated some optimism. From last month’s article, the second scenario to return cattle feeders to profitability was for corn to get cheaper which it has. The second item of good news concerns the stock market rally. I've been told that the stock market leads the economy by about 6 months. First quarter of 2010 should see the economy grow if that proves to be true. The best news is the nation’s monthly unemployment figure. Last month unemployment actually went down for the first time since April 2008. Unemployment now stands at 9.4% down from 9.5% in June. Still a very high figure that could still be revised upward but a figure that gives hope that the economy could be turning the corner. The beef business will not get better until our end users lose their fear of loosing their jobs and their homes. Everyday that passes brings us a day closer to a much, much better cattle market. We still have to get past the fall but I'm starting to think that now is the time to maximize your cow inventory and for backgrounders to start buying a percentage of calves you anticipate needing.

Looking around there just isn't as many cattle to sell this summer as there was 3 to 5 years ago. It is possible if good things keep happening the rally could come in the late fall. I really doubt that but the editor likes optimism. I do believe we are within a year to having the economy grow and with it the beef business will bloom. When that bloom happens you can bet the bloom will be rose colored because I'll have those glasses on again. I can't wait.